The Drake Equation

In college at WWU, around ‘97 or so, I took a class called Astronomy 333: The Search for Extraterrestrial Life, where we learned about the Drake Equation:

N = R_∗ ⋅ f_p ⋅ n_e ⋅ f_l ⋅ f_i ⋅ f_c ⋅ L

It combines a bunch of factors such as how many solar systems have a rocky planet, how many of those planets are the right distance from the star to have liquid water, how many of those form simple life, how many of those evolve to intelligent life, and so on, to estimate the number of intelligent races in the galaxy.

My potential userbase for Mojave Paint is starting to feel like the Drake Equation, except it would be more like:

N = P ⋅ f_c ⋅ f_m ⋅ f_i ⋅ f_g ⋅ f_n ⋅ f_m ⋅ f_a ⋅ f_e

N: Number of potential customers
P: Computing-aged population of Earth
f_c: Fraction of those who own an actual computer with a keyboard
f_m: Fraction of those whose computer is a Mac
f_i: Fraction of those whose Mac is an Apple Silicon Mac
f_g: Fraction of those who are interested in photo editing or graphic design
f_n: Fraction of those who have a nostalgic appreciation for the software patterns of old
f_m: Fraction of those who have any disposable income at all
f_a: Fraction of those who are adventurous enough to try software they've never heard of
f_e: Fraction of those who speak English

When you put it that way, it seems like my target demographic is like 10 people!

One thing that does give me optimism though is that f_n factor. I’m getting a little old (I’ll be 50 next year), and old guys always think “they just don’t make them like they used to.” But I get the sense that gen alpha and younger gen Z’s are also pretty fed up with all this social media and AI and “smart” anything. I see commencement ceremonies where the speaker gets booed for talking about AI and I feel like gen alpha is going to be a pretty bad-ass generation.

In software and tech in general, we sure see a lot of what Bill Maher calls “reverse improvement.” You don’t have to be a retro hipster to recognize that Touch ID was better than Face ID, or that a physical bass knob in your car is better than navigating through tone control menus.

With Mojave Paint specifically I’ll call out a couple of throwback ideas. 1. How about a proper title bar? Instead of cramming stuff up there, stuff you have to delicately dance around when you want to move the window, what about just "grab anywhere." 2. And how about big high-contrast icons, icons so clear and obvious that even your colleague across the room can see what tool you have active. Icons you can practically see from space.

Also on the optimism front, I’ve done no translations yet in Mojave Paint. If I added a few languages I could increase that f_e factor dramatically. Something to keep in mind in my future planning work. With any luck I’ll be able to get those in before the sun expands and boils off all our oceans!

June 26, 2026